The central government has decided to adjust the fiscal policy for next year: increase the deficit, special national debt and special debt quota. According to CCTV news broadcast, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. When deploying the fiscal policy for next year, the meeting said that it is necessary to implement a more active fiscal policy, improve the fiscal deficit ratio, increase the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds, increase the issuance and use of local government special bonds, optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, and firmly grasp the bottom line of "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. According to the above-mentioned meeting arrangements, in 2025, deficit ratio will exceed 3%, ultra-long-term special national debt will exceed 1 trillion yuan, and the amount of new special debt will also exceed 3.9 trillion yuan. This means that fiscal policy will be more active next year. This is also in line with market expectations. A number of interviewed finance and taxation experts predict that deficit ratio may be 3.5%~4% next year, the ultra-long-term special national debt is expected to be 1.5 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, and the amount of special debt is expected to be around 4.5 trillion yuan. Of course, this is only an expert's prediction or suggestion, and the final actual relevant data still needs to be announced during the National People's Congress in March next year. (CBN)International oil prices rose on the 11th. As of the close of the day, the futures price of light crude oil for January 2025 in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.70 to close at $70.29 per barrel, an increase of 2.48%. London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in February 2025 rose by $1.33 to close at $73.52 per barrel, an increase of 1.84%.Newly issued loans exceeding one trillion yuan to support the financing coordination mechanism for small and micro enterprises have achieved results. On the 10th, I learned from the State Financial Supervision and Administration that since the launch of the financing coordination mechanism for small and micro enterprises in October this year, various localities and banks have responded quickly and achieved initial results. According to the data from the General Administration of Financial Supervision, by the end of November, all localities had visited 12.072 million small and micro business entities based on the working mechanism, of which 1.942 million were included in the "declaration list" and 1.303 million were included in the "recommendation list". Banks granted 2.2 trillion yuan of new credit and 1.2 trillion yuan of new loans to "recommended list" business entities.
Dollar deposits and wealth management are popular again. Experts suggest paying attention to exchange risk. Although it is in the cycle of interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve, dollar deposit products are still attractive to investors. Since December, a number of bank wealth management subsidiaries have intensively put on shelves US dollar wealth management products. Judging from the rate of return, the performance benchmark of some US dollar fixed-income wealth management products currently launched is close to 5%, but the performance benchmark of RMB wealth management products with the same risk level is mostly around 2%. According to the statistics of Puyi standard data, as of December 9, there were 1,312 surviving products in US dollar financing, and the surviving scale of US dollar financing reached 281.927 billion yuan, which has doubled from the surviving scale of 140.351 billion yuan at the end of December last year. In addition, although banks have previously lowered the interest rate of dollar deposit products, from the current point of view, the interest rate of some banks' dollar deposits remains above 4%, attracting many customers to buy. In addition, the annual interest rates of US dollar deposit products issued by banks such as Ningbo Bank Co., Ltd. and hengfeng bank Co., Ltd. are also between 3% and 4%. According to industry insiders, under the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the main reason for the high heat of dollar wealth management and dollar deposits is the exchange rate expectation of a strong dollar. If the market expects the US dollar to appreciate or remain stable, holding US dollar assets (such as US dollar wealth management and US dollar deposits) can benefit from the potential exchange rate appreciation even if interest rates fall. In addition, in order to diversify risks, some investors choose to allocate part of their funds to US dollar assets to realize diversification of asset allocation. (Securities Daily)Brazilian President Lula will undergo surgery again on the 12th. On the 11th local time, according to the latest announcement issued by the hospital, Brazilian President Lula will undergo surgery again on the morning of the 12th local time. Earlier in the day, the Syrian-Lebanese Hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil released the latest report, saying that President Lula is "conscious and clear-headed, and can have a normal conversation". At present, a drainage tube is still placed at Lula's surgical site, waiting for further examination. Lula had no postoperative complications and was in good condition. On the evening of the 9th local time, Lula was sent to this hospital for surgery due to intracranial hemorrhage.Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of Jingao Technology to over-allocation, with a target price of RMB 27.36. Tongwei shares will be upgraded to overweight with a target price of RMB 39.53.
Deputy Speaker of Poland: It is not in the interests of NATO and Poland to send troops to Ukraine. On December 12, local time, Baussac, deputy speaker of the Polish House of Representatives, said at a press conference that sending troops to Ukraine is not in the interests of Poland, the EU and NATO. He expressed firm opposition to this. On the same day, French President Mark Long will visit Warsaw and meet with Polish Prime Minister Tusk. It is reported that the leaders of the two countries will discuss the deployment of peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. When referring to this news, Baussac stressed that Poland must concentrate on strengthening its own defense capabilities, and Poland has not prepared for its own defense from the military to weapons. Baussac said that the Polish government should clearly and directly state its position and refuse to send troops to Ukraine. (CCTV News)The settlement price of international crude oil rose by over 2%. As of the close of the day, the futures price of light crude oil delivered in January 2025 in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 1.70 US dollars to close at 70.29 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.48%; London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in February 2025 rose by $1.33 to close at $73.52 per barrel, an increase of 1.84%.Promoting Peace and Cooperation Ethiopia and Somalia signed the Ankara Declaration. On December 11th, local time, under the mediation of Turkish President Erdogan, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi and Somali President Mahmoud signed the Ankara Declaration in Ankara, Turkey, announcing that they would promote peace and cooperation.